Guy Lipman
Aug 13, 2023

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Hi Jez,

Yes - BMRS made a change to their data, so I no longer get solar forecasts. They weren't actually impacting the forecast, as the demand forecast is already net of solar, so I left it off until I can update my logic (but unfortunately am pretty busy at the moment so can't promise when it will be).

Octopus haven't changed their formula, except for updating the cap. Rather, the price data that I was fitting to hasn't been available for over 18 months, so we're effectively fitting to covid / pre-Ukraine market conditions. Again, I'd like to work on refitting the model with some better data, but I'm just struggling with lack of time.

Thanks,

Guy

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Guy Lipman
Guy Lipman

Written by Guy Lipman

Fascinated by what makes societies and markets work, especially in sustainable energy. http://guylipman.com. Views not necessarily reflect those of my employer.

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